In mid-July , the domestic butadiene from 7000 yuan / ton low start bottoming out, successive rise, as of now, the East China market has exceeded 12,000 yuan / ton, the price rose more than 70%. If other chemical products, prices must be a big news , but for butadiene , it is commonplace. Butadiene industry said the devil products. Butadiene why so crazy it?
Highland lighter material butadiene cracking " was cut ."
Butadiene Industrial production is mainly from the mixed carbon ethylene cracker byproduct extracted four fractions obtained . This process is inexpensive , and is currently the world is about 97 % of the butadiene using this process . However , in recent years , the global ethylene plants have abandoned expensive naphtha, light hydrocarbon resources in favor of the use of cheap , low- cost method than naphtha nearly half. However, this process does not byproduct butadiene , resulting in global butadiene supply is tight .
First, a large number of Middle Eastern countries to take advantage of low-cost production of ethylene oxide gas . Currently 90% of the Middle East ethylene plant selection is lightweight plateau material, resulting in butadiene production decline. Middle East cheap mass production capacity , driving down the price of ethylene , resulting in costly naphtha route ethylene production capacity in recent years has been at a loss. To reduce losses , many manufacturers reduce the load , the overall operating rate of ethylene naphtha route remained at this low level of about 80 leading butadiene forced to cut again.
Second, the current North America, more than 60% of the ethylene capacity main use of lightweight materials plateau . Due to the booming shale gas revolution , making the United States the use of ethylene cracking plants more light hydrocarbon cracking plateau as expected, led to a further increase in U.S. butadiene supply gap. This year, the United States is still gradually expanding gap butadiene , butadiene lot of Asian exports to the U.S. profitable , leading to tight supply Asian markets . Especially in April of this year, while the U.S. market slump Asian butadiene prices firm , the Asian supplier of the goods exported to the U.S. profitable. April , there is 15,000 tons of butadiene exports to the United States.
In order to reduce production costs in recent years, Asian ethylene cracker business in China, Korea and other regions is also rising proportion of light hydrocarbon cracking feed the plateau . Insiders disclosed that at present , China 's large-scale ethylene cracker enterprise plateau light hydrocarbon feed ratio has exceeded 10% , some even more than 20%. It is reported that China Petrochemical has plans to invest in Qingdao, Shandong Chinese New 1 million tons of petrochemical gases plateau first applied materials / year steam cracker , the main plateau of the device material is liquefied petroleum gas and other light materials plateau .
Data show that from 2000 to 2010 , ethylene production plant material naphtha plateau , accounting for the entire ethylene plant from 55 % to 47% , while the use of ethane feed devices accounted for the plateau increased to 35% from 28%. Currently , this proportion continues to expand, while the ethylene plant highland material lightweight butadiene caused a continued tight global supply.
Industry insiders believe that , in the case of tight supply , but also by the recent oil rally boosted plateau , rising external disk butadiene market , the domestic manufacturers of butadiene listing price will be substantially raised .
Unit shut down for maintenance boost prices skyrocketing
Industry insiders believe that the domestic market rises and falls so butadiene become the market norm, mainly because the domestic market resources butadiene tight . At present , the domestic butadiene production capacity has more than 3 million tons , but the petrochemical manufacturers mutual supply of butadiene -based multi- use or smaller quantity of goods for export , downstream manufacturers purchase butadiene resources more difficult, and less imports , markets scarcity of resources, so that businesses scrambled up atmosphere, and the cover plate reluctant sellers , supporting a strong rally butadiene . Currently, some fresh butadiene has become in short supply chemical products.
Since the end of July, the country sets butadiene parking or maintenance, resulting in a sharp reduction in the supply of butadiene market , low stock market , manufacturers and traders bullish ; especially in the more northern butadiene plant maintenance , leading to the North market shortages , pushed up domestic prices . Liaoyang Petrochemical 30,000 tons / year butadiene plant on July 26 shut down for maintenance for 40 days, the parking for its triennial routine maintenance ; Fushun Petrochemical 120,000 tons / year butadiene plant shut down for maintenance , driving time delayed until the end of September ; Beijing Dongfang 24,000 tons / year butadiene plant , since the end of March has been at a standstill ; due plateau material shortages , Yangzi petrochemical 100,000 tons / year butadiene plant on the 3rd , has been at a standstill since July state ; while Qi Xiang Tenda butadiene plant 150,000 tons / year plant operating rates lower .
In addition, on August 26 , Formosa 160,000 tons / year butadiene plant unplanned shutdowns , resulting in reduced Asian sourcing, supply and demand relationship has become strained .
Downstream demand warmer boost market confidence
Our main field of application is the production of butadiene, butadiene rubber , styrene-butadiene rubber , ABS, SBS and NBR synthetic rubber. At present, more than 60% of butadiene synthetic rubber through the field into the downstream end of the tire and automotive markets. Since the third quarter , the downstream rubber market to pick up, but also makes efforts butadiene market speculation continues to heat up , boosting the market price rises .
This year, the State Council executive meeting adopted a steady growth in ten areas of policy measures , in particular the two meetings in late July , temporarily exempt some small and micro enterprises VAT and business tax , strengthen urban infrastructure construction , steady growth signal strength . As these policies continue to be effective, economic stabilization and recovery . Macroeconomic policies favorable fermentation, led a sustained rebound in the rubber market. Data show that in September , the two products SBR synthetic rubber and butadiene rubber prices were 5.45% and 3.01 %, respectively, in the rubber goods gainers , up .
Meanwhile, the domestic automobile market continues steady growth. The first seven months of this year , domestic car sales growth of up to 12% cumulative , becoming the highest growth rate since 2010 , the estimated annual growth rate of 13% , significantly outperforming the macroeconomic automobile market . Downstream arrival of the automobile industry gold , nine silver ten , or will again boost demand triggered the rally .
September 17 , the Ministry of Finance , Ministry of Science , Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Development and Reform Commission jointly issued "on the continuation of the work to promote the application of new energy vehicles ," which over the next three years to continue the promotion of new energy vehicles , new energy vehicles subsidies to stimulate further warming the rubber market.
In addition, the demand for tires and road traffic are positively correlated . This year in road traffic is still growing state in July traffic levels have exceeded last year's high point , road freight and passenger transport respectively year on year growth of 12.6% and 4.9 %.
A brokerage analysts believe that now is the season for tire production , tire factory operating rate in early September has been 7 to 8 percent ; although some vendors without due caution purchases , mainly dependent plateau beginning inventory, but obviously can not meet the post- production inventory . As of September 16 , Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks continued the downward trend in total , compared with August 30 fell 11,900 to 283,000 tons qoq increase.
The General Administration of Customs data show that in August , China imported 170,000 tons of natural rubber gum Plateau , an increase of 13.3% over July , two consecutive months of growth. January to August , China imported a total of 1.49 million tons of natural rubber , an increase of 8.5 % over last year .
Industry insiders believe that , with the advent of the current season , the downstream synthetic rubber and automobile markets will continue to be optimistic . This will continue to boost market confidence butadiene , butadiene future domestic prices are expected to continue to rise.
Butadiene was close watch on various fat
Shortage of butadiene market saw an opportunity to allow domestic enterprises , domestic enterprises to accelerate the pace of construction and commissioning of new equipment.
Relying on a large state-owned enterprises ethylene plant , using the traditional route of new butadiene plant naphtha . July 18 , Wuhan Petrochemical 130,000 tons / year butadiene plant production. The device is applied in the third set of national production of petrochemicals own technology devices , and Wuhan in central China Petrochemical has thus become the sole butadiene origin. In addition, Jinzhou Petrochemical 100,000 tons / year butadiene plant and Fujian Petrochemical 60,000 tons / year butadiene plant planned by the end of 2013 production ; Sichuan Petrochemical 150,000 tons / year will be commissioned in early next year. Lack of resources mixed C4 domestic private enterprises , the construction process is applied oxidative dehydrogenation of butene butadiene new device. This year , Qi Xiang Tenda 50,000 tons / year, Arima rubber 70,000 tons / year, Shandong Wanda Group 150,000 tons / year of butene oxidation of butadiene plant has production. Data showed that the " five-second" period, China will build 10 sets of butene dehydrogenation of butadiene plant , with a total annual production capacity of approximately 900,000 tons .
Professionals predict that, with the construction of new devices and gradually put into use, the domestic production of butadiene will further improve the situation of scarcity of resources will gradually ease .
